Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 847 - 110: Limited War Liability

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The two major camps in Europe are opposed, but the most concerned are not the four countries involved. Whether it be Russia-Austria or England and France, each has its own advantages, sufficient for self-defense.

The real misfortune, however, falls on small nations caught between the two major alliances. For now, the contradictions between the two camps have not intensified, and everyone can still barely manage.

Once the contradictions escalate, everyone will be forced to take sides. In fact, geopolitical politics have already determined the direction of alignment for these countries; they simply do not have the luxury to choose for themselves.

Countries in Western Europe can only support England and France, those in Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and Southern Europe must support Russian-Austria, and Central European countries have the toughest time, not knowing which side to choose at all.

Neutrality?

There is no problem for now, but once the two alliances clash, these neutral countries will become the first victims.

No matter which side they lean towards, they will be harshly struck by the other. Especially nations like Belgium, whose terrible strategic position determines that they cannot stay out of harm’s way.

Of course, this is the worst outcome. For the short term, there is no sign that the two major alliances are heading towards war.

Leopold II, who had a strong sense of potential trouble, could not sit idly by any longer. Originally, Anglo-Austria were both quasi-allies of Belgium, united in resisting the French’s expansion into Central Europe.

But now fundamental changes have occurred; England and France have formed an alliance. Does the British’s initial promise to protect Belgium’s security still hold?

Foreign Minister Jul said cautiously, "Your Majesty, Austria’s Foreign Ministry has sent a note, inviting us and Switzerland, the North German Confederation, and Spain to conclude a treaty to maintain peace and stability in Europe."

A glance at the map shows that the aforementioned countries are all in close proximity to France. By excluding France, such a treaty clearly targets no one else.

This can be seen as a counter to the Anglo-French alliance, with Austria ready to prove through action that they can contain France even without British involvement.

Leopold II asked doubtfully, "Did the Austrians only invite these four countries, without extending invitations to anyone else?"

Theoretically, the aforementioned four countries all face the threat from France directly, and the pain they bear makes them the most likely to align with Austria.

However, "anti-French" has always been a joint issue among European nations, not the problem of a single country. The sudden shift left Leopold II finding it hard to accept.

Foreign Minister Jul replied affirmatively, "Austria indeed only invited the four of us. It is said that the Vienna Government is concerned that other countries, without dire incentives, may not have a firm stance to contain France and could be bought over by the French, disrupting the alliance from within.

Perhaps in the eyes of the Vienna Government, to contain French expansionism, the cooperation of these five nations is already sufficient."

This is also the view of most, for France, though strong, does not have a qualitative gap with Austria, and with the addition of Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, and Germany, the Anti-French Alliance is secure.

Compared to a divided alliance, a smaller coalition with common interests and capable of mutual cooperation is more reliable.

Prime Minister August sighed and said, "If that’s the case, then we have major trouble coming our way.

Without the joint participation of all European countries to share the burden, it’s unlikely that pro-France Spain will join, especially since the likelihood of France expanding westward is almost nil and their pressure is not great.

The position of Switzerland is practically unimportant due to geographical reasons. If they insist on neutrality, Austria will most likely not force them.

When it comes to choosing between France and Austria, the North German Confederation will surely support Austria, even if an Anglo-French alliance exists, their lean will be more towards Austria.

Due to the power dynamics, the North German Confederation still has the power to stay neutral for the time being.

As long as the two great alliances don’t wage war, they can act as a buffer between France and Austria, without having to take a clear stand.

What seems like a tentative invitation is actually forcing us to take sides. Between Russian-Austria and England-France, we must choose a side."

The most tragic fate would be that of Belgium’s, as others might be able to avoid the situation, but unfortunate Belgium cannot.

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There is no choice; France’s ambition towards Belgium always needs to be contained.

Originally, this task was undertaken by the Anglo-Austrian two countries. Now that the British have allied with the French, the only one left to continue containing French ambition is Austria.

If we reject Austria now, then in the future when faced with a French invasion, Belgium will have to fight alone.

As for the British, confidence in them is lacking. Even if the London Government were willing to intervene with troops, Belgium would be long gone before the British Army could complete its expansion.

After much hesitation, Leopold II slowly said, "Have the Foreign Ministry negotiate with Austria, we can sign the conditions for mutual defense against the French, but the prerequisite is that it must be kept strictly confidential.

Austria may not care about offending the French, but we don’t have the capacity to stir up trouble. Remember to stipulate in the treaty that Austria must provide us with security protection.

At the same time, send people to strengthen our relationship with the North German Confederation, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and other countries; their stance at crucial moments is also very important."

Belgium leaning towards Austria is driven by necessity; their ambitious enemy now is France, not Austria, hundreds of miles away.

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Joining forces with England and France would be like negotiating with a tiger for its skin. An ally’s status becomes worthless in the face of interests. One misstep, and you could be skinned alive and swallowed whole.

Choosing to sign a secret agreement was actually Leopold II’s strategy to hedge his risks.

The best-case scenario is to deceive everyone; if that’s impossible, then delaying exposure by even a day means putting off risk for another day.

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Compared with Belgium, the North German Confederation was bustling—opposition and support were plenty and varied.

The plan was supposed to be kept secret, but before any consensus could be reached, the news was already flying everywhere.

Unsurprisingly, when the matter was laid out on the table, it signified that Austria’s attempt to persuade others had failed.

Under the pressure of England and France, Spain and Switzerland each declined the Vienna Government’s proposal, while Belgium was only making clandestine contact; publicly, the Belgian government did not dare take sides.

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When the news of failure arrived, Franz was not surprised. No one is a fool; Austria orchestrating an Anti-French Alliance was essentially recruiting cannon fodder, which no clever person would be fooled by.

As the French economy recovered, the pro-war faction’s voices grew louder.

The military, led by the nobility, sought military honors, while capitalists wanted to resolve coal supply issues—all of these could potentially be solved through war.

Otherwise, the United Kingdom wouldn’t have thrown out bait that the French government was willing to accept, abandoning centuries of animosity between the two countries for an alliance.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg presented a document and said, "Your Majesty, this is the preliminary result of negotiations with the Belgian government. Currently, the biggest issue is the distribution of rights and obligations.

The Belgian government, using their lack of strength as an excuse, is only willing to assume partial wartime responsibilities.

Limited to: they will only send troops when the French invade Central Europe.

If we were to break out in war with the French in the Italian Area, Belgium only agrees to provide material support, maintaining neutrality publicly."Limited wartime responsibilities are essentially equivalent to not assuming any wartime responsibilities at all.

Just by looking at the map of Europe, one can see that the best route for the French to invade Central Europe is through Belgium.

If the enemy is at the door, even without a mutual defense treaty, Belgium would have to bite the bullet and face them.

It might seem like Austria is getting the short end of the stick, but actually, this is a relatively fair treaty.

Given Belgium’s size, if France and Austria were to start a war in the Italian Area, their participation would make little difference.

A mere detachment from the French could defeat them; and in the end, Austria would still have to send troops to rescue them.

The biggest value of pulling in Belgium is not expecting them to muster a formidable fighting force or play a significant role.

It’s that after the Austrian army gains the upper hand on the battlefield, they could use Belgium as a springboard to march forth, seizing strategic initiative.

Without much hesitation, Franz made a decision, "Agree to their demands, but add a requirement for passage rights.

If we were to break out in a war with France and needed a throughway, as allies, they must grant passage and help maintain our logistics.

In return, they’ll get a share of the spoils after the war, and all disputed territories between France and Belgium could belong to them."

Writing an unfunded check is easy, especially since the promises involve French territory; if Belgium is hungry for it, let them have it.

Not just Belgium—Franz wouldn’t mind any ally getting a piece of France on victory.

When dealing with an enemy, of course, a thorough weakening is required. The Franco-Prussian war of the original timeline did not end perfectly because it failed to significantly weaken France.

Whether it was indemnities or territorial losses, they only caused pain but were not lethal.

If the Kingdom of Prussia had been more diplomatically flexible at the time and managed to coax Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, and Italy, rallying everyone to share the spoils, perhaps the outcome would have been very different.

Once all the neighbors had benefited, everyone would be on the same front. As victors, no one would want to see their enemy recover.

By then, it would be a collective effort to suppress France. The Paris Government, powerful as it might be, couldn’t withstand the care of so many enemies converging upon them.

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